Silence Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SLN Stock | USD 6.38 -0.25 -3.77% |
The Simple Moving Average reference data for Silence Therapeutics is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Silence Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 6.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.05.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Silence Therapeutics PLC price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Silence Therapeutics. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All forecast values on this page for Silence Therapeutics PLC are Simple Moving Average reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Silence Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 6.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.05 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silence Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silence Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Silence Therapeutics | Silence Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Silence Therapeutics PLC focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 1.61 and upside near 11.40.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silence Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silence Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9552 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2212 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0394 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Silence Therapeutics
For both new and experienced investors in Silence, the ability to analyze Silence Therapeutics' price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Silence Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Silence Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Silence Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Silence Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Silence Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Silence Therapeutics provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Silence Therapeutics PLC for maximum return potential.
Silence Therapeutics Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Silence Therapeutics' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Silence Therapeutics' allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Variance | 22.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Silence Therapeutics
Story coverage around Silence Therapeutics PLC often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Silence Therapeutics Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Silence Therapeutics PLC can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 85.1 M |