Solid Biosciences Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SLDB Stock | USD 7.03 -0.09 -1.26% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Solid Biosciences LLC is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solid Biosciences LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 6.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67.When Solid Biosciences LLC prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Solid Biosciences LLC trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Solid Biosciences observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Solid Biosciences LLC are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solid Biosciences LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 6.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Solid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Solid Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Solid Biosciences | Solid Biosciences Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Solid Biosciences' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Solid Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Solid Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0992 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2486 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0385 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Solid Biosciences
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Solid needs to understand the dynamics of Solid Biosciences' price movement. Price charts for Solid Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Solid Biosciences Related Equities
The following equities are related to Solid Biosciences within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Solid Biosciences against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Solid Biosciences Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Solid Biosciences enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Solid Biosciences LLC.
Solid Biosciences Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Solid Biosciences' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Solid Biosciences' and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.72 | |||
| Variance | 32.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -5.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Solid Biosciences
Coverage intensity for Solid Biosciences LLC matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Solid Biosciences Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Solid Biosciences LLC matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 148.9 M |