Silicom Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SILC Stock | USD 21.29 -1.31 -5.80% |
This reference view applies Triple Exponential Smoothing to Silicom's historical closing prices. Silicom's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Silicom's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Silicom.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Silicom on the next trading day is expected to be 21.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.18.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Silicom observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Silicom observations. All forecast values on this page for Silicom are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Silicom on the next trading day is expected to be 21.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.18 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silicom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silicom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Silicom | Silicom Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Silicom uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 16.18 on the downside to about 26.89 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silicom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silicom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1226 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.603 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0326 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.1786 |
Other Forecasting Options for Silicom
Volume-weighted price analysis for Silicom Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Silicom momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Silicom's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Silicom Stock price action.Silicom Related Equities
Investors studying Silicom often look at related stocks within the Information Technology space to gauge pricing and results. Checking Silicom against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Silicom Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Silicom stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Silicom trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when Silicom stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Silicom strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Silicom Risk Indicators
Understanding Silicom's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Silicom's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Silicom's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for silicom stock becomes clearer when Silicom's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.17 | |||
| Variance | 26.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Silicom
Coverage intensity for Silicom matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Silicom Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Silicom is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.1 M |