Companhia Siderurgica Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SID Stock | USD 1.18 0.00 0.00% |
Forecasting Companhia Siderurgica stock price is inherently uncertain, but structured approaches to analyzing market sentiment can improve the odds. This module tracks the noise around Companhia Siderurgica Nacional to identify periods where price and perception diverge.
Based on the latest data, the momentum index for Companhia Siderurgica stands at 33, indicating moderately negative momentum. Momentum below the midline but above oversold territory places Companhia Siderurgica in a wait-and-see zone for many technical traders.Momentum
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 33.206 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year -0.07 | EPS Estimate Next Year -0.02 | Wall Street Target Price 1.3347 |
Hype-based context for Companhia Siderurgica Nacional connects recent headlines with price response and peer activity. Sentiment context for Companhia Siderurgica is drawn from options positioning and short interest patterns.
Short Interest Map for Companhia Siderurgica
When Companhia Siderurgica's short interest rises materially month-over-month, it suggests that more market participants are betting against Companhia Siderurgica. Monitoring the trend is essential for long holders.
200 Day MA 1.5327 | Short Percent 0.0079 | Short Ratio 2.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.4 M | 50 Day MA 1.5668 |
Companhia RSI Profile
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Companhia Siderurgica Nacional on the next trading day is expected to be 1.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.52.Companhia Siderurgica Sentiment-to-Price Pattern
Behavioral finance research confirms that investor sentiment drives Companhia Siderurgica's price in the short term. By quantifying that sentiment from news and social signals, investors can better time entries and exits in Companhia.
Companhia Siderurgica's investor sentiment is not always right, but it is always relevant. Understanding the current mood of the market toward Companhia Siderurgica helps investors assess whether current prices reflect greed, fear, or rational expectation.
Companhia Siderurgica Implied Volatility | 2.02 |
For option buyers, high Companhia Siderurgica's implied volatility means paying more for the right to profit from price movements in Companhia Siderurgica. For sellers, elevated implied volatility creates opportunities to collect richer premiums.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Companhia Siderurgica Nacional on the next trading day is expected to be 1.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.52.Companhia Siderurgica after-hype prediction price | $ 1.13 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the stock.
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Rule 16 Overview for current Companhia contract
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-06-18 options is about 12.63%. This context is informational: with Companhia Siderurgica near $ 1.18, the daily move estimate is $ 0.15 .
Open Interest Snapshot: Companhia 2026-06-18 Options
Open interest data for Companhia Siderurgica reflects active contracts and can be read alongside price and volatility context.
Companhia Siderurgica Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Companhia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Companhia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Companhia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Companhia Siderurgica Nacional on the next trading day is expected to be 1.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Companhia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Companhia Siderurgica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Companhia Siderurgica | Companhia Siderurgica Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Companhia Siderurgica's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.01 and upside near 5.37.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Companhia Siderurgica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Companhia Siderurgica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0151 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.5197 |
The mean reversion principle applied to Companhia Siderurgica's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distributions applied to Companhia Siderurgica price forecasting provide a more honest representation of uncertainty than single point estimates. The shape of Companhia Siderurgica's distribution - whether it is symmetric, skewed, or fat-tailed - carries important information for risk.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
News-driven price analysis for Companhia Siderurgica quantifies the historical relationship between headline events and Companhia Siderurgica's short-term price response. Companhia Siderurgica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 5.29, respectively. The strength of this signal depends on the consistency of Companhia Siderurgica's past reactions to comparable news categories.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Companhia Siderurgica Nacional is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Companhia Siderurgica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Companhia Siderurgica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Companhia Siderurgica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 4.23 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 9 Events | 6 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.18 | 1.13 | 0.89 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2026 Companhia Siderurgica is traded for 1.18. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Companhia is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.89%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Companhia Siderurgica is about 6934.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.15. The company reported last year's revenue of 43.69 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was -1.54 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 12.2 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 9 days. Cross-verify projections for Companhia Siderurgica using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Companhia Siderurgica. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
When a direct competitor of Companhia Siderurgica experiences a significant news event, the market often re-rates Companhia Siderurgica's shares in sympathy or in contrast, depending on whether the news affects the sector broadly or competitively.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASH | Ashland Global Holdings | -0.66 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 3.88 | -3.02 | 10.15 | |
| CSTM | Constellium Nv | 1.29 | 10 per month | 1.78 | 0.21 | 5.04 | -3.91 | 15.56 | |
| WS | Worthington Steel | 1.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 4.08 | -4.28 | 12.32 | |
| OLN | Olin Corporation | 0.49 | 10 per month | 3.13 | 0.11 | 6.11 | -5.11 | 18.91 | |
| CC | Chemours Co | 0.21 | 9 per month | 3.97 | 0.16 | 6.15 | -5.88 | 25.73 | |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical | -2.59 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 3.44 | -4.91 | 12.82 | |
| EXK | Endeavour Silver Corp | -0.32 | 9 per month | 5.69 | 0.08 | 8.50 | -9.51 | 27.88 | |
| CGAU | Centerra Gold | -0.47 | 11 per month | 3.97 | 0.15 | 5.30 | -5.44 | 26.36 | |
| SIM | Grupo Simec SAB | 0.00 | 7 per month | 1.86 | 0.05 | 4.77 | -4.92 | 18.05 | |
| ELVR | Sayona Mining Limited | 0.29 | 2 per month | 5.41 | 0.10 | 8.93 | -8.78 | 31.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Companhia Siderurgica
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Companhia Siderurgica's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Companhia. Price charts for Companhia Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Companhia Siderurgica Related Equities
The following equities are related to Companhia Siderurgica within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Companhia Siderurgica against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Companhia Siderurgica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Companhia Siderurgica give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Companhia Siderurgica is likely to be most rewarding.
| Accumulation Distribution | 351135.0 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.2 |
Companhia Siderurgica Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Companhia Siderurgica's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Companhia Siderurgica's.
| Mean Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Variance | 17.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Companhia Siderurgica
A coverage review of Companhia Siderurgica Nacional helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Companhia Siderurgica Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Companhia Siderurgica Nacional can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.2 B |
More Resources for Companhia Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Companhia Siderurgica starts with financial statements and ratio context. Companhia Siderurgica's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for Companhia Stock:Cross-verify projections for Companhia Siderurgica using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Companhia Siderurgica. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Companhia Siderurgica P/E of 6.51 alongside ROE at -5.34% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. That valuation within Basic Materials invites comparison with Steel peers using the tools below to judge whether the multiple is justified. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 33.206 | Earnings Share -0.32 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 | Return On Assets |
Companhia Siderurgica's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Companhia's balance sheet. Companhia Siderurgica's market capitalization is 2.16 B. A P/B ratio of 0.54 suggests Companhia Siderurgica trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 8.27 B. Value and price for Companhia Siderurgica are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.
Value and price for Companhia Siderurgica are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For Companhia Siderurgica, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 6.51, a P/B ratio of 0.54, a profit margin of -3.42%, and ROE of -5.34%. Companhia Siderurgica's market quotation reflects the latest level where a willing buyer met a willing seller.