SHIMAMURA Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SHAOF Stock | USD 21.49 0.00 0.00% |
The forecast reference data for SHIMAMURA on this page is generated using Simple Exponential Smoothing applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SHIMAMURA Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.26.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting SHIMAMURA Co forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent SHIMAMURA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for SHIMAMURA are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SHIMAMURA Co on the next trading day is expected to be 21.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 , mean absolute percentage error of 28.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.26 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SHIMAMURA Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SHIMAMURA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for SHIMAMURA Co uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SHIMAMURA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SHIMAMURA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4673 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7072 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9223 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0372 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for SHIMAMURA
Investors at all stages of experience who consider SHIMAMURA must develop an understanding of SHIMAMURA's price dynamics. The noise embedded in SHIMAMURA Pink Sheet price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.View SHIMAMURA's Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SHIMAMURA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to SHIMAMURA pink sheet give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in SHIMAMURA Co.
SHIMAMURA Risk Indicators
Evaluating SHIMAMURA's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of SHIMAMURA's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.39 | |||
| Variance | 70.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SHIMAMURA
Coverage intensity for SHIMAMURA Co matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Financial ratios for SHIMAMURA help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare SHIMAMURA across valuation measures.