SIIT HIGH Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SGYAX Fund | USD 6.87 -0.02 -0.29% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Siit High Yield. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Siit High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.57.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past SIIT HIGH observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Siit High Yield observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Siit High Yield is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Siit High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SIIT Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SIIT HIGH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates SIIT HIGH's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 6.68 and upside near 7.05.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SIIT HIGH mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SIIT HIGH mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0096 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5681 |
Other Forecasting Options for SIIT HIGH
SIIT HIGH's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in SIIT often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.SIIT HIGH Related Equities
The peer firms below within the High Yield Bond space can help frame SIIT HIGH's pricing and running costs in context. Market cap and total value checks frame SIIT HIGH's size within the competitive field.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SIIT HIGH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how SIIT HIGH mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Siit High Yield.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.27 |
SIIT HIGH Risk Indicators
The analysis of SIIT HIGH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding SIIT HIGH's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1209 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1816 | |||
| Variance | 0.033 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SIIT HIGH
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Siit High Yield can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.