Select Medical Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| SEM Stock | USD 15.00 0.25 1.69% |
Select Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Select Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Select Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Select Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Select Medical's share price is at 52. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Select Medical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2344 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2282 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3073 | Wall Street Target Price 18.4 |
Using Select Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Select Medical Holdings from the perspective of Select Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Select Medical using Select Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Select using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Select Medical's stock price.
Select Medical Short Interest
An investor who is long Select Medical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Select Medical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Select Medical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.3377 | Short Percent 0.0838 | Short Ratio 4.99 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 14.8532 |
Select Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Select Medical Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.44.Select Medical Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Select Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Select. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Select can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Select Medical Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Select Medical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Select Medical.
Select Medical Implied Volatility | 1.17 |
Select Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Select Medical Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Select Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Select Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Select Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Select Medical Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.44. Select Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Select Medical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Select contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Select Medical Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0731% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Select Medical trading at USD 15.0, that is roughly USD 0.011 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Select Medical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Select Medical Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Select Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Select Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Select Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Select Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Select Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Select Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Select Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Select. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Select Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Select price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Select using various technical indicators. When you analyze Select charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Select Medical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Select Medical Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 15.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Select Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Select Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Select Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Select Medical | Select Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Select Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Select Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Select Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.74 and 17.63, respectively. We have considered Select Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Select Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Select Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4748 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0329 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.4401 |
Predictive Modules for Select Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Select Medical Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Select Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Select Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Select Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Select Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Select Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Select Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Select Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Select Medical's historical news coverage. Select Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.97, respectively. We have considered Select Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Select Medical is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Select Medical Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Select Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Select Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Select Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Select Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.94 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 15 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Select Medical Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Select Medical Holdings is traded for 15.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Select is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Select Medical is about 596.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.07. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Select Medical Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of November 2025. The firm had 1856:1000 split on the 26th of November 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Select Medical to cross-verify your projections.Select Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Select Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Select Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Select Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Select Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MD | Mednax Inc | 0.04 | 6 per month | 1.84 | 0.07 | 3.16 | (3.57) | 28.51 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 2.37 | 6 per month | 1.62 | 0.09 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| ASTH | Astrana Health | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.14 | (7.67) | 31.71 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | 0.04 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.71 | (7.74) | 33.41 | |
| USPH | US Physicalrapy | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.72 | (3.55) | 13.09 | |
| ARDT | Ardent Health Partners | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.47 | (3.69) | 36.66 | |
| HRMY | Harmony Biosciences Holdings | 0.56 | 9 per month | 1.58 | 0.13 | 3.38 | (2.28) | 11.30 | |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | 0.04 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.50 | (5.27) | 16.94 | |
| HCSG | Healthcare Services Group | 0.04 | 5 per month | 2.38 | (0.01) | 3.74 | (2.83) | 13.01 | |
| LFST | Lifestance Health Group | 0.04 | 18 per month | 1.03 | 0.12 | 3.26 | (2.55) | 32.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Select Medical
For every potential investor in Select, whether a beginner or expert, Select Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Select Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Select. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Select Medical's price trends.Select Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Select Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Select Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Select Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Select Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Select Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Select Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Select Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Select Medical Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Select Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Select Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Select Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting select stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Select Medical
The number of cover stories for Select Medical depends on current market conditions and Select Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Select Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Select Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Select Medical Short Properties
Select Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Select Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Select Medical Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Select Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Select Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Select Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Will Health Care Providers & Services sector continue expanding? Could Select diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Select Medical. If investors know Select will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Select Medical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 0.375 | Earnings Share 0.82 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.072 |
Investors evaluate Select Medical Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Select Medical's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Select Medical's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Select Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Select Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Select Medical's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.