ProShares UltraShort Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SDD Etf | USD 11.78 0.00 0.00% |
ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for ProShares UltraShort. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for ProShares UltraShort.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 on the next trading day is expected to be 11.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.16.When ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ProShares UltraShort observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 on the next trading day is expected to be 11.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.16 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares UltraShort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares UltraShort etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares UltraShort etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2062 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.1642 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraShort
Bollinger Bands applied to ProShares Etf price data measure how far ProShares has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to ProShares UltraShort's price data. On-balance volume for ProShares Etf creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in ProShares. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for ProShares UltraShort's.ProShares UltraShort Related Equities
These stocks are related to ProShares UltraShort within the Trading--Inverse Equity space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge ProShares UltraShort's relative financial strength. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares UltraShort Market Strength Events
For investors tracking ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of etf behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in ProShares UltraShort. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0599 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.03 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.37 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.23 |
ProShares UltraShort Risk Indicators
Analyzing ProShares UltraShort's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for proshares etf. By identifying the level of risk embedded in ProShares UltraShort's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing ProShares UltraShort's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in ProShares UltraShort's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ProShares UltraShort
Story coverage around ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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More Resources for ProShares Etf Analysis
Initial analysis of ProShares UltraShort centers on its financial statements and observed trends. These values are derived from ProShares UltraShort's published financial data.Projections for ProShares UltraShort can be cross-referenced against Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares UltraShort data. ProShares UltraShort analysis should be read alongside other portfolio and risk tools before reallocating capital. A thorough ProShares UltraShort review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
The market value of ProShares UltraShort is measured differently than book value, which reflects ProShares accounting equity. Reconciling these perspectives is central to structured valuation analysis.
Distinguishing between ProShares UltraShort's value and market price helps frame analytical expectations. The assessment draws on financial ratios, peer comparisons, and historical trend data.