SMALLCAP WORLD Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SCWFX Fund | USD 72.42 1.10 1.54% |
SMALLCAP WORLD's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Smallcap World Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 72.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.60.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Smallcap World Fund price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of SMALLCAP WORLD. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future SMALLCAP WORLD's Simple Moving Average reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Smallcap World Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 72.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.76 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.60 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SMALLCAP Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SMALLCAP WORLD's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SMALLCAP WORLD | SMALLCAP WORLD Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Smallcap World Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 71.35 on the downside to about 73.49 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SMALLCAP WORLD mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SMALLCAP WORLD mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0015 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0113 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6933 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.6 |
Other Forecasting Options for SMALLCAP WORLD
Analyzing SMALLCAP WORLD's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in SMALLCAP WORLD's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.SMALLCAP WORLD Related Equities
The peer firms below within the World Small/Mid Stock space can help frame SMALLCAP WORLD's pricing and running costs in context. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across SMALLCAP WORLD's peer group. When SMALLCAP WORLD breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SMALLCAP WORLD Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SMALLCAP WORLD mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade SMALLCAP WORLD.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 72.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.55 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.1 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.79 |
SMALLCAP WORLD Risk Indicators
Assessing SMALLCAP WORLD's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting SMALLCAP WORLD's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7711 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SMALLCAP WORLD
Coverage intensity for Smallcap World Fund matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.