Sentinel Balanced Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SBACX Fund | USD 28.73 -0.19 -0.66% |
Sentinel Balanced Fund's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Sentinel Balanced. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Sentinel Balanced.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sentinel Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.80.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Sentinel Balanced Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Sentinel Balanced observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Sentinel Balanced Fund are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sentinel Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sentinel Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sentinel Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Sentinel Balanced Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 28.20 and upside around 29.26 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sentinel Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sentinel Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4206 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0275 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1279 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.8 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sentinel Balanced
Bollinger Bands applied to Sentinel Mutual Fund price data measure how far Sentinel has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Sentinel Balanced's price data. On-balance volume for Sentinel Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Sentinel. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Sentinel Balanced's.Sentinel Balanced Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Sentinel Balanced within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Sentinel Balanced's relative financial strength. How Sentinel Balanced ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sentinel Balanced Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Sentinel Balanced Fund, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Sentinel Balanced Fund positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Sentinel Balanced. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Sentinel Balanced Fund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.19 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.64 |
Sentinel Balanced Risk Indicators
Analyzing Sentinel Balanced's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for sentinel mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Sentinel Balanced's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Sentinel Balanced's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Sentinel Balanced's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4244 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5256 | |||
| Variance | 0.2762 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sentinel Balanced
Story coverage around Sentinel Balanced Fund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.