Ridgeworth Seix Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SAMFX Fund | USD 9.32 -0.02 -0.21% |
Ridgeworth Seix's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ridgeworth Seix Total on the next trading day is expected to be 9.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06.When Ridgeworth Seix Total prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ridgeworth Seix Total trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ridgeworth Seix observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Ridgeworth Seix's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ridgeworth Seix Total on the next trading day is expected to be 9.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ridgeworth Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ridgeworth Seix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ridgeworth Seix | Ridgeworth Seix Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ridgeworth Seix Total focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 9.07 and upside around 9.54 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ridgeworth Seix mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ridgeworth Seix mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.002 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0177 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0595 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ridgeworth Seix
Analyzing Ridgeworth Seix's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Ridgeworth Seix's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Ridgeworth Seix Related Equities
Ridgeworth Seix's market space within the Intermediate Core Bond space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Checking Ridgeworth Seix against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ridgeworth Seix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Ridgeworth Seix mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Ridgeworth Seix.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 |
Ridgeworth Seix Risk Indicators
Assessing Ridgeworth Seix's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Ridgeworth Seix's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1612 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.207 | |||
| Variance | 0.0428 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ridgeworth Seix
Coverage intensity for Ridgeworth Seix Total matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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