Safran SA Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SAFRF Stock | USD 348.00 -0.40 -0.11% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Hype-based context for Safran SA compares attention patterns with recent price movement.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Safran SA on the next trading day is expected to be 348.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 481.12.Safran SA after-hype prediction price | $ 348.0 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the stock.
Safran |
Safran SA Additional Predictive Modules
Predictive models for Safran SA combine technical indicators with statistical methods to estimate probable price trajectories. Backtested accuracy does not guarantee forward performance - market structure and volatility regimes evolve.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Safran SA on the next trading day is expected to be 348.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 111.78 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 481.12 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Safran Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Safran SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Safran SA | Safran SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Safran SA focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 345.39 and upside around 350.61 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Safran SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Safran SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.9892 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1507 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.0187 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 481.12 |
Experienced Safran SA's investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability distribution for Safran SA is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Safran SA's historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Safran SA outcomes than simple linear.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The boundaries derived from Safran SA's historical news analysis represent the range within which Safran SA's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Safran SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 345.39 and 350.61, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Safran SA.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Safran SA across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. Safran SA is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Safran SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Safran SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Safran SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.61 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events | 7 Events | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
348.00 | 348.00 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Safran SA is at this time traded for 348.00. The company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Safran is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Safran SA is about 2372.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 348.01. About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.86. Safran SA had its last dividend issued on the 31st of May 2022. The company completed a 5:1 stock split on 22nd of December 2004. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Cross-verify projections for Safran SA using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Safran SA. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding Safran SA's position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Safran SA. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Safran SA's industry.
Other Forecasting Options for Safran SA
Understanding Safran SA's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Safran as a position. Safran Pink Sheet price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Safran SA Related Equities
The following equities are related to Safran SA within the Aerospace & Defense space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Safran SA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Safran SA Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Safran SA, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the pink sheet's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Safran SA shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
Safran SA Risk Indicators
Analyzing Safran SA's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Safran SA's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Safran SA
Coverage intensity for Safran SA matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Safran SA financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Safran across valuation measures and peers.