ROYCE SMALL-CAP Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| RYVFX Fund | USD 10.13 0.09 0.90% |
ROYCE SMALL-CAP's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Royce Small Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 10.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.62.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Royce Small Cap Value price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of ROYCE SMALL-CAP. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future ROYCE SMALL-CAP's Simple Moving Average reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Royce Small Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 10.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.62 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ROYCE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ROYCE SMALL-CAP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Royce Small Cap Value uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 9.02 on the downside to about 11.15 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ROYCE SMALL-CAP mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ROYCE SMALL-CAP mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0959 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.004 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0952 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.615 |
Other Forecasting Options for ROYCE SMALL-CAP
Analyzing ROYCE SMALL-CAP's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in ROYCE SMALL-CAP's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.ROYCE SMALL-CAP Related Equities
Sizing up ROYCE SMALL-CAP against these stocks within the Small Value space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking ROYCE SMALL-CAP against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ROYCE SMALL-CAP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ROYCE SMALL-CAP mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade ROYCE SMALL-CAP.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.21 |
ROYCE SMALL-CAP Risk Indicators
Assessing ROYCE SMALL-CAP's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting ROYCE SMALL-CAP's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7761 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9576 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.917 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ROYCE SMALL-CAP
Coverage intensity for Royce Small Cap Value matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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