UTILITIES FUND Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RYUIX Fund | USD 71.33 0.66 0.93% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This section frames Utilities Fund Investor response to recent headlines in a peer context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Utilities Fund Investor on the next trading day is expected to be 71.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.59.UTILITIES FUND after-hype prediction price | $ 64.1 |
The hype panel supports comparisons with forecasting models, technical signals, analyst consensus, and earnings.
UTILITIES |
UTILITIES FUND Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UTILITIES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UTILITIES using various technical indicators. When you analyze UTILITIES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Utilities Fund Investor on the next trading day is expected to be 71.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.59 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UTILITIES Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UTILITIES FUND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UTILITIES FUND | UTILITIES FUND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Utilities Fund Investor uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UTILITIES FUND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UTILITIES FUND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.08 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5015 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.5905 |
The mean reversion principle applied to UTILITIES FUND's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distributions applied to UTILITIES FUND price forecasting provide a more honest representation of uncertainty than single point estimates. The shape of UTILITIES FUND's distribution - whether it is symmetric, skewed, or fat-tailed - carries important information for risk.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
News-driven price analysis for UTILITIES FUND quantifies the historical relationship between headline events and UTILITIES FUND's short-term price response. UTILITIES FUND's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.26 and 78.46, respectively. The strength of this signal depends on the consistency of UTILITIES FUND's past reactions to comparable news categories.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Utilities Fund Investor is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. Used correctly, the estimate adds context around potential normalization rather than promising a specific realized outcome.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as UTILITIES FUND is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UTILITIES FUND backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UTILITIES FUND, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 0.84 | 7.23 | 0.17 | 2 Events | 2 Events | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
71.33 | 64.10 | 10.14 |
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Hype Timeline
Utilities Fund Investor is at this time traded for 71.33. The fund has historical hype elasticity of -7.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. UTILITIES is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the fund price is about 1.74%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -10.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on UTILITIES FUND is about 73.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 71.16. The fund has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Utilities Fund Investor had its last dividend issued on the 11th of December 2019. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Cross-verify projections for UTILITIES FUND using Historical Fundamental Analysis of UTILITIES FUND. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
When a direct competitor of UTILITIES FUND experiences a significant news event, the market often re-rates UTILITIES FUND's shares in sympathy or in contrast, depending on whether the news affects the sector broadly or competitively.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CVLEX | Cullen Value Fund | 0.50 | 3 per month | 0.64 | 0.17 | 1.28 | -1.42 | 4.06 | |
| RYBIX | Basic Materials Fund | -14.70 | 10 per month | 1.90 | 0.19 | 2.61 | -3.65 | 13.81 | |
| RYBAX | Basic Materials Fund | 0.58 | 1 per month | 1.90 | 0.19 | 2.61 | -3.65 | 15.43 | |
| MUNDX | Mundoval Fund Mundoval | 0.35 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.91 | -1.21 | 3.59 | |
| RSJN | First Trust Exchange Traded | -0.02 | 5 per month | 0.39 | 0.14 | 0.61 | -0.76 | 1.95 | |
| RYBMX | Basic Materials Fund | 0.50 | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.19 | 2.60 | -3.65 | 14.95 | |
| AFALX | Applied Finance Core | 5.85 | 10 per month | 0.52 | 0.15 | 1.06 | -1.00 | 3.13 | |
| TGFRX | Tanaka Growth Fund | 0.14 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 2.62 | -3.78 | 9.39 | |
| ADVGX | Advisory Research All | -4.55 | 5 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 2.36 | -2.01 | 8.33 | |
| PCIG | Litman Gregory Funds | -0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 1.57 | -2.02 | 7.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for UTILITIES FUND
Regardless of investment experience, understanding UTILITIES FUND's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in UTILITIES. Price charts for UTILITIES Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.UTILITIES FUND Related Equities
The following equities are related to UTILITIES FUND within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing UTILITIES FUND against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UTILITIES FUND Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for UTILITIES FUND give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading UTILITIES FUND is likely to be most rewarding.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 71.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 71.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.33 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.66 |
UTILITIES FUND Risk Indicators
A thorough review of UTILITIES FUND's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding UTILITIES FUND's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6475 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6178 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8167 | |||
| Variance | 0.667 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6062 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3817 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UTILITIES FUND
Story coverage around Utilities Fund Investor often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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