Rayonier Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RYN Stock  USD 20.18  0.12  0.60%   
As of today, RSI for Rayonier stands at 37, indicating moderately negative momentum. This range suggests moderated price movement without extreme directional pressure.
Momentum
Sell Extended
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Rayonier's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Rayonier, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Fundamental indicators supporting Rayonier's forecast view:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.93
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.08
 EPS Estimate Current Year
0.4126
 EPS Estimate Next Year
0.6558
 Wall Street Target Price
26.8333
This view aligns Rayonier's headline activity with price response and peer context. Options positioning and short interest are used here to outline sentiment for Rayonier.

Rayonier Short Interest Overview

A significant increase or decrease in Rayonier's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Rayonier. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Rayonier stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
 200 Day MA
23.5569
 Short Percent
0.0215
 Short Ratio
1.53
 Shares Short Prior Month
8.1 M
 50 Day MA
22.4654

RSI Trend for Rayonier

The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rayonier on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.34.

Rayonier Attention vs Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Rayonier's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Rayonier. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Rayonier can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Rayonier's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Rayonier.
Rayonier Implied Volatility
    
  0.31  
Rayonier's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Rayonier stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Rayonier's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rayonier on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.34.
Rayonier after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 20.18  
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rayonier provides a cross-check on projections for Rayonier. The historical series provides projection context.
For information on how to trade Rayonier Stock refer to our How to Trade Rayonier Stock guide.

Rule 16 for the current Rayonier contract

Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 1.94% for 2026-05-15 options. With Rayonier trading near $ 20.18, that translates to about $ 0.39 per day in either direction.

Open Interest Tracking for Rayonier 2026-05-15 Options

Open interest for Rayonier options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.

Rayonier Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Rayonier price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rayonier using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rayonier charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Rayonier - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Rayonier prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Rayonier price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Rayonier.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rayonier on the next trading day is expected to be 20.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.34 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rayonier Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rayonier's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rayonier  Rayonier Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Forecasting Rayonier for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 18.19 and upside around 21.86 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
20.18
20.02
Expected Value
21.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rayonier stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rayonier stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0812
MADMean absolute deviation0.3447
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0153
SAESum of the absolute errors20.3385
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Rayonier observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Rayonier observations.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rayonier's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.3520.1822.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.0317.8622.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.7921.8023.80
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.4226.8329.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rayonier. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rayonier's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Rayonier at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Rayonier's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rayonier's historical news coverage.
Current Value
20.18
20.18
After-hype Price
22.01
Upside
The next after-hype price estimate for Rayonier is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. Rayonier is Low at this time.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rayonier is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rayonier backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rayonier, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
1.83
  0.05 
  0.01 
6 Events
7 Events
In 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.18
20.18
0.00 
446.34  
Notes

Hype Timeline

On the 15th of March 2026 Rayonier is traded for 20.18. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Rayonier is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Rayonier is about 3504.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.17. About 53.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Rayonier was at this time reported as 13.69. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 131.53. Rayonier had its last dividend issued on the 17th of March 2026. The company completed a 1339:1000 stock split on 30th of June 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 6 days.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rayonier provides a cross-check on projections for Rayonier. The historical series provides projection context.
For information on how to trade Rayonier Stock refer to our How to Trade Rayonier Stock guide.

Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Rayonier's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rayonier's future price movements. Getting to know how Rayonier's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WYWeyerhaeuser-0.68 19 per month 1.32 0.04 3.24 -2.29 11.20
LAMRLamar Advertising 0.91 9 per month 0.92 0.09 1.78 -1.75 4.42
FPIFarmland Partners 0.32 9 per month 1.43 0.19 2.62 -3.12 8.52
LANDGladstone Land 0.01 19 per month 1.15 0.23 3.67 -2.79 12.66
PCHPotlatchDeltic Corp-0.33 14 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
GLPIGaming Leisure Properties 0.67 8 per month 0.77 0.22 2.66 -1.68 5.95
CCICrown Castle 0.59 9 per month 2.34 0.02 2.85 -2.94 11.39
EPREPR Properties-1.94 8 per month 1.10 0.15 2.21 -2.00 7.84
AFCGAFC Gamma-0.02 6 per month 3.75 0.01 6.64 -6.53 25.20

Other Forecasting Options for Rayonier

For every potential investor in Rayonier, whether a beginner or expert, Rayonier's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Rayonier Related Equities

The following equities are related to Rayonier within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Rayonier against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rayonier Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rayonier stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rayonier shares will generate the highest return on.

Rayonier Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rayonier's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rayonier's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Rayonier

Coverage intensity for Rayonier matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Rayonier Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Rayonier is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding158.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments842.9 M

More Resources for Rayonier Stock Analysis

A comprehensive view of Rayonier starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate Rayonier Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Rayonier Stock:
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rayonier provides a cross-check on projections for Rayonier. The historical series provides projection context.
For information on how to trade Rayonier Stock refer to our How to Trade Rayonier Stock guide.
At P/E 131.53 and ROE 3.63%, Rayonier analysis should be read alongside other portfolio and risk tools before adjusting capital allocation. Combining those profitability and valuation signals with the risk, diversification, and comparative tools below produces a more informed Real Estate position-sizing decision. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.93
 Dividend Share
1.09
 Earnings Share
0.47
 Revenue Per Share
3.131
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
-0.84
Understanding Rayonier includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Rayonier's accounting equity. Rayonier's market capitalization is 6.13 B. Rayonier P/B of 2.76 shows the market assigns a modest premium over accounting equity. Enterprise value stands at 6.32 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Rayonier's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Rayonier, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 131.53, a P/B ratio of 2.76, a profit margin of 97.92%, and ROE of 3.63%. Where Rayonier trades at any moment depends on the balance of buying and selling pressure.