COMMODITIES STRATEGY Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| RYMBX Fund | USD 210.41 3.14 1.51% |
COMMODITIES STRATEGY's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Commodities Strategy Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 210.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.24.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Commodities Strategy Fund price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of COMMODITIES STRATEGY. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for COMMODITIES STRATEGY are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Commodities Strategy Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 210.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 12.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.24 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COMMODITIES Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COMMODITIES STRATEGY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Commodities Strategy Fund focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 208.78 and upside around 212.04 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COMMODITIES STRATEGY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COMMODITIES STRATEGY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7636 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.3788 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4873 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 149.235 |
Other Forecasting Options for COMMODITIES STRATEGY
For investors of all experience levels considering COMMODITIES, understanding COMMODITIES STRATEGY's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. COMMODITIES Mutual Fund price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.COMMODITIES STRATEGY Related Equities
The following equities are related to COMMODITIES STRATEGY within the Commodities Broad Basket space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing COMMODITIES STRATEGY against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COMMODITIES STRATEGY Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for COMMODITIES STRATEGY mutual fund provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading COMMODITIES STRATEGY.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 210.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 210.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.57 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.14 |
COMMODITIES STRATEGY Risk Indicators
Assessing COMMODITIES STRATEGY's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding COMMODITIES STRATEGY's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for COMMODITIES STRATEGY
Story coverage around Commodities Strategy Fund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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