Utilities Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

RYCUX Fund  USD 45.47  0.29  0.63%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Utilities Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 44.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.66. Utilities Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Utilities Fund's share price is approaching 47 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Utilities Fund, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 47

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Utilities Fund's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Utilities Fund Class, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Utilities Fund hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Utilities Fund Class from the perspective of Utilities Fund response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Utilities Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 44.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.66.

Utilities Fund after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 45.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Utilities Fund to cross-verify your projections.

Utilities Fund Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Utilities price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Utilities using various technical indicators. When you analyze Utilities charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Utilities Fund price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Utilities Fund Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Utilities Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 44.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Utilities Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Utilities Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Utilities Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Utilities FundUtilities Fund Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Utilities Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Utilities Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Utilities Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.89 and 45.48, respectively. We have considered Utilities Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
45.47
44.69
Expected Value
45.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Utilities Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Utilities Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9252
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4944
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors30.6556
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Utilities Fund Class historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Utilities Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Utilities Fund Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Utilities Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
44.6845.4746.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.8245.6146.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
44.2745.1546.03
Details

Utilities Fund After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Utilities Fund at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Utilities Fund or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Utilities Fund, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Utilities Fund Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Utilities Fund's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Utilities Fund's historical news coverage. Utilities Fund's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.68 and 46.26, respectively. We have considered Utilities Fund's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
45.47
45.47
After-hype Price
46.26
Upside
Utilities Fund is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Utilities Fund Class is based on 3 months time horizon.

Utilities Fund Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Utilities Fund is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Utilities Fund backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Utilities Fund, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.80
  3.16 
 0.00  
2 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
45.47
45.47
0.00 
2.03  
Notes

Utilities Fund Hype Timeline

Utilities Fund Class is at this time traded for 45.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -3.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Utilities is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.03%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Utilities Fund is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.47. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.67. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Utilities Fund Class last dividend was issued on the 11th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Utilities Fund to cross-verify your projections.

Utilities Fund Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Utilities Fund's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Utilities Fund's future price movements. Getting to know how Utilities Fund's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Utilities Fund may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Utilities Fund

For every potential investor in Utilities, whether a beginner or expert, Utilities Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Utilities Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Utilities. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Utilities Fund's price trends.

Utilities Fund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Utilities Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Utilities Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Utilities Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Utilities Fund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Utilities Fund mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Utilities Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Utilities Fund mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Utilities Fund Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Utilities Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Utilities Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Utilities Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting utilities mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Utilities Fund

The number of cover stories for Utilities Fund depends on current market conditions and Utilities Fund's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Utilities Fund is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Utilities Fund's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Utilities Mutual Fund

Utilities Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Utilities Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Utilities with respect to the benefits of owning Utilities Fund security.
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