Biotechnology Fund Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RYCFX Fund | USD 41.73 0.24 0.58% |
Biotechnology Fund's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biotechnology Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 41.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Biotechnology Fund observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Biotechnology Fund Class observations. Biotechnology Fund's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biotechnology Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 41.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.29 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biotechnology Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biotechnology Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Biotechnology Fund | Biotechnology Fund Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Biotechnology Fund Class for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 40.21 on the downside to about 42.60 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biotechnology Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biotechnology Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0248 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.41 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.1907 |
Other Forecasting Options for Biotechnology Fund
Analyzing Biotechnology Fund's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Biotechnology Fund's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Biotechnology Fund Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Biotechnology Fund within the Health space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Biotechnology Fund's relative financial strength. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Biotechnology Fund across many periods.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Biotechnology Fund Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Biotechnology Fund mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Biotechnology Fund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.24 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.29 |
Biotechnology Fund Risk Indicators
Assessing Biotechnology Fund's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Biotechnology Fund's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.855 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Variance | 12.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7311 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Biotechnology Fund
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Biotechnology Fund Class can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
