T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RPOIX Fund | USD 8.60 0.02 0.23% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for T ROWE is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Triple Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 8.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.62.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past T ROWE observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older T Rowe Price observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for T ROWE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 8.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.62 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RPOIX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T ROWE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 7.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
The distribution of T ROWE's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in T ROWE's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of T ROWE's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in RPOIX.T ROWE Related Equities
Sizing up T ROWE against these stocks within the High Yield Bond space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across T ROWE's peer group. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag T ROWE across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T ROWE give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in T Rowe Price. Market strength analysis for T Rowe Price works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For T ROWE, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.48 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of T ROWE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in T ROWE's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of T ROWE's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in T ROWE's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1118 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1801 | |||
| Variance | 0.0324 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
The amount of media and story coverage tied to T Rowe Price can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.