T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| RPIEX Fund | USD 7.35 0.02 0.27% |
T ROWE's Polynomial Regression reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 7.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.29.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the T ROWE historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm T ROWE's Polynomial Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 7.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.29 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RPIEX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting T Rowe Price for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0209 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2939 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
Analyzing T ROWE's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in T ROWE's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.T ROWE Related Equities
Investors studying T ROWE often look at related stocks within the Nontraditional Bond space to gauge pricing and results. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across T ROWE's peer group. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T ROWE mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade T ROWE.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.35 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Assessing T ROWE's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting T ROWE's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2244 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.319 | |||
| Variance | 0.1017 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
The amount of media and story coverage tied to T Rowe Price can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.