Atrium Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RNADelisted Stock | USD 13.13 0.44 3.47% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Atrium Therapeutics Common. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atrium Therapeutics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 13.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.43.When Atrium Therapeutics Common prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Atrium Therapeutics Common trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Atrium Therapeutics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Atrium Therapeutics Common is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atrium Therapeutics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 13.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 57.35 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.43 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atrium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atrium Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Atrium Therapeutics | Atrium Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Atrium Therapeutics Common focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 2.75 and upside around 23.59 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atrium Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atrium Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.0408 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1598 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0761 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Atrium Therapeutics
Atrium Therapeutics' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Atrium often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Atrium Stock data examines overnight jumps between Atrium Therapeutics' closing and opening prices.Atrium Therapeutics Related Equities
Investors studying Atrium Therapeutics often look at related stocks within the Health Care space to gauge pricing and results. Growth rate gaps between Atrium Therapeutics and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Atrium Therapeutics across many periods.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Atrium Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Atrium Therapeutics stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Atrium Therapeutics Common. These indicators can identify periods when trading Atrium Therapeutics Common may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
Atrium Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Atrium Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Atrium Therapeutics' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of Atrium Therapeutics' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.02 | |||
| Variance | 100.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Atrium Therapeutics
Coverage intensity for Atrium Therapeutics Common matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Atrium Therapeutics Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Atrium Therapeutics Common is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atrium Therapeutics can be used to cross-verify projections for Atrium Therapeutics.Atrium Therapeutics currently shows ROE of -43.98%, market cap of 11.24 Billion. Investors get more value from Atrium Therapeutics analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. A thorough Atrium Therapeutics review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Other Consideration for investing in Atrium Stock
Atrium Therapeutics liquidity profile may be thinner following delisting.
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