RLX Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RLX Stock | USD 2.18 -0.02 -0.91% |
This reference view applies Simple Exponential Smoothing to RLX Technology's historical closing prices. RLX Technology's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. RLX Technology's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for RLX Technology.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RLX Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 2.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting RLX Technology forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent RLX Technology observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for RLX Technology are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RLX Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 2.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0017 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RLX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RLX Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RLX Technology | RLX Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting RLX Technology for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RLX Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RLX Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.8677 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.03 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8 |
Other Forecasting Options for RLX Technology
Volume-weighted price analysis for RLX Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in RLX momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing RLX Technology's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in RLX Stock price action.RLX Technology Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as RLX Technology within the Consumer Staples space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at RLX Technology's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RLX Technology Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of RLX Technology stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade RLX Technology. These metrics are particularly useful when RLX Technology stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing RLX Technology strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
RLX Technology Risk Indicators
Understanding RLX Technology's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in RLX Technology's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing RLX Technology's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for rlx stock becomes clearer when RLX Technology's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 2.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RLX Technology
The amount of media and story coverage tied to RLX Technology can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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RLX Technology Short Properties
Short-interest signals around RLX Technology can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.2 B |