AMERICAN HIGH Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| RITAX Fund | USD 9.80 -0.02 -0.20% |
This reference page presents Simple Regression forecast data for American High Income. The model output shown here is derived from AMERICAN HIGH's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of American High Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.04.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as American High Income historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. This Simple Regression forecast data for American High Income is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of American High Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0019 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.04 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMERICAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMERICAN HIGH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMERICAN HIGH | AMERICAN HIGH Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting American High Income for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 9.73 and upside near 10.09.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0335 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.0438 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMERICAN HIGH
For every potential investor in AMERICAN, whether a beginner or expert, AMERICAN HIGH's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.AMERICAN HIGH Related Equities
The following equities are related to AMERICAN HIGH within the High Yield Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AMERICAN HIGH against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMERICAN HIGH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMERICAN HIGH shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.04 |
AMERICAN HIGH Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMERICAN HIGH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMERICAN HIGH's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1231 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1319 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1709 | |||
| Variance | 0.0292 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0552 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0174 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMERICAN HIGH
Coverage intensity for American High Income matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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