Rational Special Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RFXIX Fund | USD 18.02 -0.02 -0.11% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Rational Special is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rational Special Situations on the next trading day is expected to be 18.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.53.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Rational Special observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Rational Special Situations observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Rational Special presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rational Special Situations on the next trading day is expected to be 18.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.53 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rational Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rational Special's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rational Special | Rational Special Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Rational Special Situations for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rational Special mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rational Special mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0088 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 5.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rational Special
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Rational Special's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Rational. Price charts for Rational Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Rational Special Related Equities
The following equities are related to Rational Special within the Nontraditional Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Rational Special against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rational Special Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Rational Special give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Rational Special is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.5 |
Rational Special Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Rational Special's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Rational Special's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0462 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0616 | |||
| Variance | 0.0038 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0109 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rational Special
A coverage review of Rational Special Situations shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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