DAVIS GOVERNMENT Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RFBAX Fund | USD 5.18 -0.01 -0.19% |
Momentum
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
This view frames how Davis Government Bond responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Davis Government Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 5.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0024 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15.DAVIS GOVERNMENT after-hype prediction price | $ 5.18 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
DAVIS |
DAVIS GOVERNMENT Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DAVIS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DAVIS using various technical indicators. When you analyze DAVIS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Davis Government Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 5.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0024 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.000023 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.15 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DAVIS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DAVIS GOVERNMENT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DAVIS GOVERNMENT | DAVIS GOVERNMENT Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Davis Government Bond uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DAVIS GOVERNMENT mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DAVIS GOVERNMENT mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 105.6022 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0024 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 5.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.1459 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DAVIS GOVERNMENT's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DAVIS GOVERNMENT at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DAVIS GOVERNMENT's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DAVIS GOVERNMENT's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Davis Government Bond assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as DAVIS GOVERNMENT is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DAVIS GOVERNMENT backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DAVIS GOVERNMENT, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 4 Events | 1 Events | In 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.18 | 5.18 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Davis Government Bond is at this time traded for 5.18. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. DAVIS is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on DAVIS GOVERNMENT is about 10.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.20. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 4 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of DAVIS GOVERNMENT to cross-verify projections for DAVIS GOVERNMENT. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DAVIS GOVERNMENT's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DAVIS GOVERNMENT's future price movements. Getting to know how DAVIS GOVERNMENT's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WIMVX | Westcore Global Large Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.0031 | 0.94 | -1.34 | 3.41 | |
| MGKAX | Morgan Stanley Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.13 | 2.04 | -2.22 | 28.43 | |
| CGO | Calamos Global Total | 0.02 | 3 per month | 1.04 | 0.09 | 1.37 | -1.70 | 4.27 | |
| USLUX | Us Global Investors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.06 | 1.70 | -2.07 | 12.28 | |
| TEGBX | Templeton Global Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.69 | -1.07 | 2.45 | |
| CABIX | Ab Global Risk | -1.85 | 5 per month | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.83 | -1.00 | 6.03 | |
| RGGCX | Victory Rs Global | -0.47 | 1 per month | 0.83 | 0.05 | 0.89 | -1.64 | 4.08 | |
| HRLAX | The Hartford Global | 10.18 | 4 per month | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.87 | -0.78 | 2.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for DAVIS GOVERNMENT
For every potential investor in DAVIS, whether a beginner or expert, DAVIS GOVERNMENT's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.DAVIS GOVERNMENT Related Equities
The following equities are related to DAVIS GOVERNMENT within the Short Government space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing DAVIS GOVERNMENT against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DAVIS GOVERNMENT Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DAVIS GOVERNMENT mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DAVIS GOVERNMENT shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 69.77 |
DAVIS GOVERNMENT Risk Indicators
The analysis of DAVIS GOVERNMENT's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DAVIS GOVERNMENT's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0494 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0921 | |||
| Variance | 0.0085 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DAVIS GOVERNMENT
Coverage intensity for Davis Government Bond matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.