T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| REVIX Fund | USD 19.28 0.16 0.84% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for T Rowe is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 19.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past T Rowe observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older T Rowe Price observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for T Rowe presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 19.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REVIX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T Rowe | T Rowe Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for T Rowe Price uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 18.03 and upside around 20.49 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0434 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1779 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.6723 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
Regardless of investment experience, understanding T Rowe's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in REVIX. Price charts for REVIX Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.T Rowe Related Equities
The following equities are related to T Rowe within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing T Rowe against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T Rowe give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading T Rowe is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.16 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.42 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
A thorough review of T Rowe's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding T Rowe's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8485 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.00 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
A coverage review of T Rowe Price helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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