TAX MANAGED Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RETSX Fund | USD 91.16 -1.34 -1.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for TAX MANAGED is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tax Managed Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 91.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.54.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Tax Managed Large Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent TAX MANAGED observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for TAX MANAGED presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tax Managed Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 91.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.51 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.54 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TAX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TAX MANAGED's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Tax Managed Large Cap for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 90.47 and upside around 91.97 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TAX MANAGED mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TAX MANAGED mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5934 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1221 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5591 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0058 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.5434 |
Other Forecasting Options for TAX MANAGED
The distribution of TAX MANAGED's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in TAX MANAGED's chart that simple price charts miss.TAX MANAGED Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as TAX MANAGED within the Large Blend space and serve as useful points for comparison. Growth rate gaps between TAX MANAGED and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TAX MANAGED Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for TAX MANAGED give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Tax Managed Large Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 91.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 91.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.67 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.34 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.29 |
TAX MANAGED Risk Indicators
A thorough review of TAX MANAGED's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in TAX MANAGED's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5953 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.753 | |||
| Variance | 0.567 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TAX MANAGED
A coverage review of Tax Managed Large Cap shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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