Emerging Markets Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| REMSX Fund | USD 22.15 0.42 1.93% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Emerging Markets is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emerging Markets Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50.When Emerging Markets Fund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Emerging Markets Fund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Emerging Markets observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Emerging Markets presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emerging Markets Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emerging Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emerging Markets' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Emerging Markets | Emerging Markets Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Emerging Markets Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emerging Markets mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emerging Markets mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0207 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.225 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.4981 |
Other Forecasting Options for Emerging Markets
The distribution of Emerging Markets' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Emerging Markets' chart that simple price charts miss.Emerging Markets Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of Emerging Markets within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space and offer context for ranking and strength. Looking at Emerging Markets' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Emerging Markets Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Emerging Markets give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Emerging Markets Fund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.21 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.42 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.99 |
Emerging Markets Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Emerging Markets' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Emerging Markets' allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9115 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Emerging Markets
Story coverage around Emerging Markets Fund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.