T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| REIPX Fund | USD 39.26 0.18 0.46% |
This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for T Rowe Price presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 39.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.71.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting T Rowe Price forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent T Rowe observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for T Rowe Price are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 39.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.71 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REIPX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T Rowe's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 38.57 and upside near 39.95.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4845 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0209 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2084 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0052 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.7109 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether REIPX is a viable investment for any investor. REIPX Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.T Rowe Related Equities
The following equities are related to T Rowe within the Large Value space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing T Rowe against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of T Rowe mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading T Rowe Price is most likely to be profitable.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 39.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 39.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.18 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.59 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
The analysis of T Rowe's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in T Rowe's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5387 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6332 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7301 | |||
| Variance | 0.533 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5902 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4009 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
A coverage review of T Rowe Price helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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