Royal Caribbean Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RCL Stock | USD 290.58 2.57 0.88% |
Royal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Royal Caribbean's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Royal Caribbean's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Royal Caribbean fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Royal Caribbean's share price is at 52 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Royal Caribbean, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.363 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.8979 | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.6515 | EPS Estimate Next Year 17.6649 | Wall Street Target Price 332.2083 |
Using Royal Caribbean hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Royal Caribbean Cruises from the perspective of Royal Caribbean response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Royal Caribbean using Royal Caribbean's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Royal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Royal Caribbean's stock price.
Royal Caribbean Short Interest
An investor who is long Royal Caribbean may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Royal Caribbean and may potentially protect profits, hedge Royal Caribbean with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 288.482 | Short Percent 0.0498 | Short Ratio 5.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 275.987 |
Royal Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Royal Caribbean Cruises on the next trading day is expected to be 291.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.86.Royal Caribbean Cruises Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Royal Caribbean's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Royal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Royal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Royal Caribbean Cruises. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Royal Caribbean's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Royal Caribbean.
Royal Caribbean Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
Royal Caribbean's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Royal Caribbean Cruises stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Royal Caribbean's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Royal Caribbean stock will not fluctuate a lot when Royal Caribbean's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Royal Caribbean Cruises on the next trading day is expected to be 291.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.86. Royal Caribbean after-hype prediction price | USD 290.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Caribbean to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Royal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Royal Caribbean Cruises will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Royal Caribbean trading at USD 290.58, that is roughly USD 0.0817 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Royal Caribbean's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Royal Caribbean Cruises options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Royal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Royal Caribbean's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Royal Caribbean's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Royal Caribbean stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Royal Caribbean's open interest, investors have to compare it to Royal Caribbean's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Royal Caribbean is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Royal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Royal Caribbean Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Royal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Royal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Royal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Royal Caribbean Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Royal Caribbean Cruises on the next trading day is expected to be 291.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.75, mean absolute percentage error of 56.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royal Caribbean's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Royal Caribbean Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Royal Caribbean | Royal Caribbean Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Royal Caribbean Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Royal Caribbean's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Royal Caribbean's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 288.50 and 293.75, respectively. We have considered Royal Caribbean's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royal Caribbean stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royal Caribbean stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.0553 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.7476 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 344.8585 |
Predictive Modules for Royal Caribbean
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Caribbean Cruises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Caribbean's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royal Caribbean After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Royal Caribbean at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Royal Caribbean or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Royal Caribbean, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Royal Caribbean Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Royal Caribbean's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Royal Caribbean's historical news coverage. Royal Caribbean's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 287.90 and 293.16, respectively. We have considered Royal Caribbean's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Royal Caribbean is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Royal Caribbean Cruises is based on 3 months time horizon.
Royal Caribbean Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Royal Caribbean is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Royal Caribbean backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Royal Caribbean, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.63 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
290.58 | 290.53 | 0.02 |
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Royal Caribbean Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Royal Caribbean Cruises is traded for 290.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Royal is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 290.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Royal Caribbean is about 207.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 290.67. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.94. Royal Caribbean Cruises recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 3rd of August 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Caribbean to cross-verify your projections.Royal Caribbean Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Royal Caribbean's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Royal Caribbean's future price movements. Getting to know how Royal Caribbean's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Royal Caribbean may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | (1.94) | 23 per month | 1.69 | (0.01) | 2.66 | (2.53) | 8.82 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | (8.20) | 16 per month | 1.05 | 0.09 | 3.48 | (1.63) | 8.46 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | (2.46) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.32 | (2.35) | 6.34 | |
| TCOM | Trip Group Ltd | 0.32 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.70 | (3.34) | 21.80 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | 3.67 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.01 | (2.82) | 7.22 | |
| GM | General Motors | 1.67 | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.16 | 4.01 | (2.41) | 8.44 | |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | (8.88) | 8 per month | 3.53 | 0.15 | 6.78 | (5.16) | 18.44 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | 4.38 | 7 per month | 1.07 | 0.03 | 2.63 | (2.42) | 7.52 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | 25.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.73 | (2.67) | 9.96 | |
| CCL | Carnival | (1.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.88 | (3.65) | 12.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for Royal Caribbean
For every potential investor in Royal, whether a beginner or expert, Royal Caribbean's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Royal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Royal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Royal Caribbean's price trends.Royal Caribbean Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Royal Caribbean stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Royal Caribbean could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Royal Caribbean by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royal Caribbean Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Royal Caribbean stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Royal Caribbean shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Royal Caribbean stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Royal Caribbean Cruises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 39827.44 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 291.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 291.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.61) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.57) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.65 |
Royal Caribbean Risk Indicators
The analysis of Royal Caribbean's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Royal Caribbean's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting royal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Royal Caribbean
The number of cover stories for Royal Caribbean depends on current market conditions and Royal Caribbean's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Royal Caribbean is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Royal Caribbean's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Royal Caribbean Short Properties
Royal Caribbean's future price predictability will typically decrease when Royal Caribbean's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Royal Caribbean Cruises often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Royal Caribbean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Caribbean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 279 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 388 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Caribbean to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Caribbean. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Caribbean listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.363 | Dividend Share 3.05 | Earnings Share 14.86 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.052 |
The market value of Royal Caribbean Cruises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Caribbean's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Caribbean's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Caribbean's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Caribbean's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Caribbean's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Royal Caribbean is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Caribbean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.