RiverSource Series Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RCEAX Fund | USD 11.88 0.02 0.17% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Riversource Series Trust. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Riversource Series Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.02.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Riversource Series Trust forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent RiverSource Series observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Riversource Series Trust is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Riversource Series Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.02 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RiverSource Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RiverSource Series' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RiverSource Series | RiverSource Series Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Riversource Series Trust uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RiverSource Series mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RiverSource Series mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.565 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0083 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for RiverSource Series
RiverSource Series' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in RiverSource often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.RiverSource Series Related Equities
The peer firms below within the China Region space can help frame RiverSource Series' pricing and running costs in context. Profit comparisons show whether RiverSource Series earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RiverSource Series Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how RiverSource Series mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Riversource Series Trust.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
RiverSource Series Risk Indicators
The analysis of RiverSource Series' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding RiverSource Series' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8844 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RiverSource Series
Story coverage around Riversource Series Trust often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.