Raytech Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

RAY Stock   4.59  0.06  1.29%   
Raytech Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Raytech Holding's stock price is slightly above 66 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Raytech, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 66

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Raytech Holding's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Raytech Holding Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Raytech Holding's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
Using Raytech Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Raytech Holding Limited from the perspective of Raytech Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Raytech Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of Raytech Holding Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.68.

Raytech Holding Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Raytech Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Raytech. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Raytech can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Raytech Holding Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Raytech Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Raytech Holding.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Raytech Holding Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.68.

Raytech Holding after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.66  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Raytech Holding to cross-verify your projections.

Raytech Holding Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Raytech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Raytech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Raytech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Raytech Holding price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Raytech Holding Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Raytech Holding Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Raytech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Raytech Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Raytech Holding Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Raytech Holding  Raytech Holding Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Raytech Holding Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Raytech Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Raytech Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 13.14, respectively. We have considered Raytech Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.59
2.98
Expected Value
13.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Raytech Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Raytech Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8766
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7488
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.3098
SAESum of the absolute errors45.6757
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Raytech Holding Limited historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Raytech Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Raytech Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.234.6614.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.173.3113.47
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Raytech Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Raytech Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Raytech Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Raytech Holding.

Raytech Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Raytech Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Raytech Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Raytech Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Raytech Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Raytech Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Raytech Holding's historical news coverage. Raytech Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 14.82, respectively. We have considered Raytech Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.59
4.66
After-hype Price
14.82
Upside
Raytech Holding is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Raytech Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.

Raytech Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Raytech Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Raytech Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Raytech Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.78 
10.16
  0.07 
  0.05 
9 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.59
4.66
1.53 
11,289  
Notes

Raytech Holding Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January Raytech Holding is traded for 4.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Raytech is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.53%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.78%. The volatility of related hype on Raytech Holding is about 14941.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.54. The company reported the last year's revenue of 78.74 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.27 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 18.53 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Raytech Holding to cross-verify your projections.

Raytech Holding Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Raytech Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Raytech Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Raytech Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Raytech Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PHHPHH Old(0.02)6 per month 0.00 (0.17) 11.11 (7.50) 40.61 
EDBLEdible Garden AG(0.08)11 per month 0.00 (0.18) 11.48 (11.39) 44.05 
HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness 0.01 8 per month 0.00 (0.11) 11.11 (8.62) 56.39 
SOWGSow Good Common(0.01)5 per month 7.33  0.01  24.00 (12.90) 55.88 
PETZTDH Holdings(0.27)35 per month 1.93  0.02  4.04 (2.97) 12.06 
BONBon Natural Life 0.01 9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 7.55 (6.83) 18.75 
IPSTHeritage Distilling Holding(0.27)11 per month 0.00 (0.27) 16.37 (22.51) 43.45 
KIDZClassover Holdings Class 0.01 7 per month 0.00 (0.31) 8.77 (13.33) 35.31 
AGRIAgriFORCE Growing Systems(0.08)6 per month 0.00 (0.09) 12.40 (10.58) 35.74 
WAFUWah Fu Education 0.02 6 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.32 (5.14) 15.74 

Other Forecasting Options for Raytech Holding

For every potential investor in Raytech, whether a beginner or expert, Raytech Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Raytech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Raytech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Raytech Holding's price trends.

Raytech Holding Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Raytech Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Raytech Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Raytech Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Raytech Holding Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Raytech Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Raytech Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Raytech Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Raytech Holding Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Raytech Holding Risk Indicators

The analysis of Raytech Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Raytech Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting raytech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Raytech Holding

The number of cover stories for Raytech Holding depends on current market conditions and Raytech Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Raytech Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Raytech Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Raytech Holding Short Properties

Raytech Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Raytech Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Raytech Holding Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Raytech Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Raytech Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments84.9 M

Additional Tools for Raytech Stock Analysis

When running Raytech Holding's price analysis, check to measure Raytech Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Raytech Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Raytech Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Raytech Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Raytech Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Raytech Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.