RAPT Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RAPT Stock | USD 58.01 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.89 | EPS Estimate Current Year -2.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year -2.71 | Wall Street Target Price 58 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.85 |
This view relates RAPT Therapeutics' headline activity to recent price response context. This module summarizes sentiment around RAPT Therapeutics using options and short interest metrics.
Short Interest Profile - RAPT Therapeutics
Short sellers in RAPT Therapeutics profit when RAPT Therapeutics' stock falls below their entry price. Monitoring short interest helps long investors understand the magnitude of selling pressure they face.
200 Day MA 27.4167 | Short Percent 0.0859 | Short Ratio 0.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.2 M | 50 Day MA 49.9413 |
RSI Trend for RAPT
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.69.RAPT Therapeutics Hype-to-Price View
When RAPT Therapeutics' news sentiment peaks, stock prices often follow with a lag. Similarly, sentiment troughs can mark price bottoms if fundamental business quality remains intact.
Tracking how RAPT Therapeutics' sentiment evolves after major announcements helps investors assess whether the market's reaction was proportionate or whether an over-correction created a new entry opportunity in RAPT Therapeutics.
RAPT Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
The implied volatility skew for RAPT Therapeutics options - the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls at different strikes - reveals the market's asymmetric fear of downside versus upside moves in RAPT Therapeutics' stock.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.69.RAPT Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | $ 58.09 |
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of RAPT Therapeutics to cross-verify projections for RAPT Therapeutics. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 for the current RAPT contract
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 5.25% across the 2026-05-15 option cycle. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 58.01, it implies a move of about $ 3.05 per day.
Open Interest Profile for RAPT 2026-05-15 Contracts
Open interest summarizes open contracts on RAPT Therapeutics and offers neutral context on positioning.
RAPT Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RAPT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RAPT using various technical indicators. When you analyze RAPT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 , mean absolute percentage error of 9.60 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.69 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RAPT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RAPT Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RAPT Therapeutics | RAPT Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for RAPT Therapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RAPT Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RAPT Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5344 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3782 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9948 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.69 |
The mean reversion framework for RAPT Therapeutics is built on the premise that markets are not perfectly efficient and that prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Visualizing the full distribution of potential RAPT Therapeutics outcomes discourages binary thinking about investments. Rather than asking whether RAPT Therapeutics' price will go up or down, the distribution approach asks: what is the range of outcomes and how probable is each?
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The news-based price prediction model for RAPT Therapeutics is transparent: it measures how RAPT Therapeutics' has historically reacted to news, not how it will theoretically behave. RAPT Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.14 and 67.04, respectively. Investors should use this model as one input among many when evaluating RAPT Therapeutics ahead of anticipated news.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for RAPT Therapeutics is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. RAPT Therapeutics is Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RAPT Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RAPT Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RAPT Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.27 | 8.95 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 9 Events | 3 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.01 | 58.09 | 0.14 |
|
Hype Timeline
RAPT Therapeutics is at this time traded for 58.01. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. RAPT is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 58.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.27%. The volatility of related hype on RAPT Therapeutics is about 38913.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.04. Net Loss for the year was -129.87 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.53 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 9 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of RAPT Therapeutics to cross-verify projections for RAPT Therapeutics. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
The peer hype analysis for RAPT Therapeutics identifies which competitors tend to lead the sector in their news reactions. These leading indicators provide early signals about the direction of RAPT Therapeutics' upcoming performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | 0.05 | 16 per month | 3.38 | 0.14 | 10.98 | -7.10 | 34.13 | |
| BCYC | Bicycle Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.19 | 4.57 | -5.65 | 12.21 | |
| OMER | Omeros | -0.17 | 9 per month | 4.56 | 0.04 | 4.80 | -7.14 | 87.69 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | 0.30 | 6 per month | 3.36 | 0.11 | 8.03 | -5.41 | 24.46 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.75 | 0.12 | 9.17 | -7.09 | 38.53 | |
| ALMS | Alumis Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.47 | 0.14 | 9.22 | -7.19 | 103.99 | |
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 6.10 | -7.25 | 33.61 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 7.15 | -9.32 | 25.26 | |
| GOSS | Gossamer Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.16 | 9.30 | -9.52 | 89.87 | |
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.61 | 0.03 | 4.87 | -6.60 | 15.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for RAPT Therapeutics
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether RAPT is a viable investment for any investor. RAPT Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.RAPT Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to RAPT Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing RAPT Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RAPT Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of RAPT Therapeutics stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading RAPT Therapeutics is most likely to be profitable.
RAPT Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of RAPT Therapeutics' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in RAPT Therapeutics' helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.49 | |||
| Variance | 72.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RAPT Therapeutics
Story coverage around RAPT Therapeutics often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
RAPT Therapeutics Short Properties
Short-interest signals around RAPT Therapeutics can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 231.1 M |
Additional Tools for RAPT Stock Analysis
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash position to determine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. |