PEAR TREE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| QUSOX Fund | USD 17.78 0.10 0.57% |
PEAR TREE's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations. This information is intended as reference material for analytical purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pear Tree Polaris on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.51.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pear Tree Polaris forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PEAR TREE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for PEAR TREE are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pear Tree Polaris on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.51 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PEAR Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PEAR TREE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates PEAR TREE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PEAR TREE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PEAR TREE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5815 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1231 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for PEAR TREE
Relative Strength Index values for PEAR measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in PEAR TREE's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of PEAR Mutual Fund daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in PEAR Mutual Fund data supports better trade timing.PEAR TREE Related Equities
These related stocks within the Foreign Small/Mid Value space give benchmarks for judging PEAR TREE's results, margins, and growth trend. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across PEAR TREE's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PEAR TREE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how PEAR TREE mutual fund is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Pear Tree Polaris. These signals help validate or refine position timing for PEAR TREE. Review these indicators alongside PEAR TREE's fundamental data for a complete analytical picture.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
PEAR TREE Risk Indicators
The analysis of PEAR TREE's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with PEAR TREE's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of PEAR TREE's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy. Investors who carefully evaluate the risks in PEAR TREE's are better positioned to make informed decisions.
| Mean Deviation | 0.629 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8728 | |||
| Variance | 0.7618 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PEAR TREE
A coverage review of Pear Tree Polaris shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.