Aqr Alternative Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| QRPRX Fund | USD 15.02 -0.08 -0.53% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Aqr Alternative is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aqr Alternative Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 15.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.27.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Aqr Alternative observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Aqr Alternative Risk observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Aqr Alternative Risk reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aqr Alternative Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 15.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aqr Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aqr Alternative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Aqr Alternative Risk uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aqr Alternative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aqr Alternative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0145 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0724 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.005 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2719 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aqr Alternative
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Aqr Mutual Fund price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Aqr occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Aqr Alternative's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.Aqr Alternative Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of Aqr Alternative within the Multistrategy space and offer context for ranking and strength. Checking Aqr Alternative against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. How Aqr Alternative ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aqr Alternative Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Aqr Alternative provides context for understanding mutual fund momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Aqr Alternative is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Aqr Alternative Risk with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Aqr Alternative Risk are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 63.92 |
Aqr Alternative Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Aqr Alternative's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Aqr Alternative's. Analyzing Aqr Alternative's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Aqr Alternative's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4703 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2194 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5847 | |||
| Variance | 0.3419 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2821 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0481 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aqr Alternative
Coverage intensity for Aqr Alternative Risk matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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