Qualys Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| QLYS Stock | USD 131.02 0.01 0.01% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 131.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.35. Qualys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The relative strength indicator of Qualys' share price is above 80 indicating that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 91
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Qualys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Qualys Inc from the perspective of Qualys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 131.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.35. Qualys after-hype prediction price | USD 130.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualys to cross-verify your projections. Qualys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Qualys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Qualys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Qualys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Qualys Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 131.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.33, mean absolute percentage error of 16.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qualys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qualys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Qualys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Qualys | Qualys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Qualys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Qualys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qualys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 128.46 and 134.68, respectively. We have considered Qualys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qualys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qualys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.529 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.328 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.35 |
Predictive Modules for Qualys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qualys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qualys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Qualys
For every potential investor in Qualys, whether a beginner or expert, Qualys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qualys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qualys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qualys' price trends.Qualys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qualys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qualys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qualys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Qualys Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Qualys' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Qualys' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Qualys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qualys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qualys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qualys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qualys Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8394.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0034 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 131.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 131.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.29) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 91.42 |
Qualys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Qualys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qualys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Variance | 9.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Qualys Stock Analysis
When running Qualys' price analysis, check to measure Qualys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Qualys is operating at the current time. Most of Qualys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Qualys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Qualys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Qualys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.