Legg Mason Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| QLMYIX Fund | USD 6.25 0.02 0.32% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legg Mason Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 6.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.82. Legg Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Legg Mason's share price is approaching 40 indicating that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Legg Mason, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Legg Mason hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Legg Mason Partners from the perspective of Legg Mason response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legg Mason Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 6.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.82. Legg Mason after-hype prediction price | USD 6.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Legg |
Legg Mason Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Legg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Legg using various technical indicators. When you analyze Legg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Legg Mason Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Legg Mason Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 6.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Legg Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Legg Mason's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Legg Mason Fund Forecast Pattern
Legg Mason Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Legg Mason's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Legg Mason's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.40 and 7.10, respectively. We have considered Legg Mason's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Legg Mason fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Legg Mason fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.5197 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0137 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.82 |
Predictive Modules for Legg Mason
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legg Mason Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Legg Mason's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Legg Mason Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Legg Mason at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Legg Mason or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Legg Mason, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Legg Mason Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Legg Mason is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Legg Mason backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Legg Mason, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.25 | 6.25 | 0.00 |
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Legg Mason Hype Timeline
Legg Mason Partners is at this time traded for 6.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Legg is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Legg Mason is about 556.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.24. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out fundamental analysis of Legg Mason to check your projections.Legg Mason Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Legg Mason's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Legg Mason's future price movements. Getting to know how Legg Mason's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Legg Mason may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCBXX | Blackrock Financial Institutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VFAIX | Vanguard Financials Index | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | (0.03) | 1.35 | (1.72) | 4.39 | |
| PSSRX | Prudential Financial Services | (0.35) | 1 per month | 0.61 | 0.11 | 1.90 | (1.74) | 12.65 | |
| FIDAX | Financial Industries Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.78 | (1.49) | 33.76 | |
| GCFSX | Gabelli Global Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1.39 | (1.03) | 3.52 | |
| FTIXX | Goldman Sachs Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DVFYX | Davis Financial Fund | (0.72) | 1 per month | 0.56 | 0.12 | 1.62 | (1.23) | 4.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Legg Mason
For every potential investor in Legg, whether a beginner or expert, Legg Mason's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Legg Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Legg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Legg Mason's price trends.Legg Mason Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Legg Mason fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Legg Mason could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Legg Mason by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Legg Mason Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Legg Mason fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Legg Mason shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Legg Mason fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Legg Mason Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.4 |
Legg Mason Risk Indicators
The analysis of Legg Mason's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Legg Mason's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting legg fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2484 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8497 | |||
| Variance | 0.722 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Legg Mason
The number of cover stories for Legg Mason depends on current market conditions and Legg Mason's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Legg Mason is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Legg Mason's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Legg Fund
Legg Mason financial ratios help investors to determine whether Legg Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Legg with respect to the benefits of owning Legg Mason security.
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