PolyPid Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PYPD Stock | USD 4.15 -0.01 -0.24% |
PolyPid's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PolyPid on the next trading day is expected to be 4.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.18.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past PolyPid observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older PolyPid observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for PolyPid are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PolyPid on the next trading day is expected to be 4.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.18 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PolyPid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PolyPid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PolyPid | PolyPid Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for PolyPid focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PolyPid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PolyPid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0211 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1048 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0234 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1845 |
Other Forecasting Options for PolyPid
Bollinger Bands applied to PolyPid Stock price data measure how far PolyPid has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to PolyPid's price data.PolyPid Related Equities
PolyPid's market space within the Health Care space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across PolyPid's peer group. When PolyPid breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PolyPid Market Strength Events
For investors tracking PolyPid, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell PolyPid.
PolyPid Risk Indicators
Analyzing PolyPid's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for polypid stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PolyPid's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Variance | 8.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PolyPid
Coverage intensity for PolyPid matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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PolyPid Short Properties
A short-interest review of PolyPid provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.9 M |