Phoenix Education Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PXED Stock   30.64  -1.03  -3.25%   
Phoenix Education's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix Education Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 31.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.64.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Phoenix Education observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Phoenix Education Partners observations. Phoenix Education's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Triple exponential smoothing for Phoenix Education - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Phoenix Education prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Phoenix Education price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Phoenix Education.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix Education Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 31.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.64 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phoenix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phoenix Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Phoenix Education Partners focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
30.64
31.16
Expected Value
35.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phoenix Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phoenix Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2339
MADMean absolute deviation1.0448
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0346
SAESum of the absolute errors61.6425
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Phoenix Education observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Phoenix Education Partners observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Phoenix Education

Analyzing Phoenix Education's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Phoenix Education's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

Phoenix Education Related Equities

Sizing up Phoenix Education against these stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Phoenix Education's relative financial strength. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Phoenix Education across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Phoenix Education Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Phoenix Education stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Phoenix Education.

Phoenix Education Risk Indicators

Assessing Phoenix Education's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Phoenix Education's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Phoenix Education

Story coverage around Phoenix Education Partners often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Phoenix Education Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Phoenix Education Partners is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments145.5 M

More Resources for Phoenix Stock Analysis

A baseline understanding of Phoenix Education is formed through its financial statements and trends. These metrics are based on Phoenix Education's reported financial results.