Stocksplus Total Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PTOAX Fund  USD 12.16  0.16  1.33%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stocksplus Total Return on the next trading day is expected to be 12.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.34. Stocksplus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Stocksplus Total's mutual fund price is slightly above 60 indicating that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Stocksplus, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Stocksplus Total's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Stocksplus Total Return, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Stocksplus Total hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stocksplus Total Return from the perspective of Stocksplus Total response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stocksplus Total Return on the next trading day is expected to be 12.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.34.

Stocksplus Total after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stocksplus Total to cross-verify your projections.

Stocksplus Total Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Stocksplus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stocksplus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stocksplus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Stocksplus Total - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Stocksplus Total prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Stocksplus Total price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Stocksplus Total Return.

Stocksplus Total Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stocksplus Total Return on the next trading day is expected to be 12.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stocksplus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stocksplus Total's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stocksplus Total Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Stocksplus TotalStocksplus Total Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Stocksplus Total Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Stocksplus Total's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stocksplus Total's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.33 and 14.02, respectively. We have considered Stocksplus Total's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.16
12.18
Expected Value
14.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stocksplus Total mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stocksplus Total mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0328
MADMean absolute deviation0.1074
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3356
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Stocksplus Total observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Stocksplus Total Return observations.

Predictive Modules for Stocksplus Total

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stocksplus Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.3112.1614.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6812.5314.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.9712.2012.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Stocksplus Total. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Stocksplus Total's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Stocksplus Total's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Stocksplus Total Return.

Stocksplus Total After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Stocksplus Total at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stocksplus Total or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Stocksplus Total, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Stocksplus Total Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Stocksplus Total's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stocksplus Total's historical news coverage. Stocksplus Total's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.31 and 14.01, respectively. We have considered Stocksplus Total's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.16
12.16
After-hype Price
14.01
Upside
Stocksplus Total is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stocksplus Total Return is based on 3 months time horizon.

Stocksplus Total Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Stocksplus Total is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stocksplus Total backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stocksplus Total, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
1.85
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.16
12.16
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Stocksplus Total Hype Timeline

Stocksplus Total Return is at this time traded for 12.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Stocksplus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Stocksplus Total is about 14230.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.16. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stocksplus Total to cross-verify your projections.

Stocksplus Total Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Stocksplus Total's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stocksplus Total's future price movements. Getting to know how Stocksplus Total's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stocksplus Total may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PSPTXStocksplus Total Return 0.00 0 per month 0.52  0.08  1.27 (1.19) 14.72 
GRISXNationwide Sp 500 0.00 0 per month 0.72  0.01  1.24 (1.16) 7.53 
CLCRXColumbia Select Large 0.00 0 per month 0.83 (0.09) 1.18 (1.26) 3.88 
RCTIXRiver Canyon Total 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.78) 0.20 (0.10) 0.60 
SVSPXSsga Sp 500 0.00 0 per month 0.80 (0.09) 1.16 (1.18) 3.61 
GCMAXGoldman Sachs Mid 0.00 0 per month 0.33  0.12  1.71 (1.39) 18.37 
AMKIXEmerging Markets Fund(0.13)1 per month 0.54  0.09  1.58 (0.99) 3.69 
SMBYXClearbridge Mid Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.05  1.51 (1.43) 10.20 
PCCOXT Rowe Price 0.00 0 per month 0.83 (0.08) 1.24 (1.20) 3.68 
PGFIXAllianzgi Focused Growth 0.00 0 per month 1.13 (0.10) 1.60 (1.98) 5.15 

Other Forecasting Options for Stocksplus Total

For every potential investor in Stocksplus, whether a beginner or expert, Stocksplus Total's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stocksplus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stocksplus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stocksplus Total's price trends.

Stocksplus Total Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stocksplus Total mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stocksplus Total could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stocksplus Total by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Stocksplus Total Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stocksplus Total mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stocksplus Total shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stocksplus Total mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Stocksplus Total Return entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Stocksplus Total Risk Indicators

The analysis of Stocksplus Total's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stocksplus Total's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stocksplus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Stocksplus Total

The number of cover stories for Stocksplus Total depends on current market conditions and Stocksplus Total's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stocksplus Total is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stocksplus Total's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Stocksplus Mutual Fund

Stocksplus Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Stocksplus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Stocksplus with respect to the benefits of owning Stocksplus Total security.
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum