THE PHILIPPINE Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PSEI Index   6,053  20.98  0.35%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE PHILIPPINE STOCK on the next trading day is expected to be 6,053 with a mean absolute deviation of 44.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,655. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast THE PHILIPPINE's index prices and determine the direction of THE PHILIPPINE STOCK's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. At this time the rsi of THE PHILIPPINE's share price is below 20 indicating that the index is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of THE PHILIPPINE's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with THE PHILIPPINE STOCK, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using THE PHILIPPINE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of THE PHILIPPINE STOCK from the perspective of THE PHILIPPINE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE PHILIPPINE STOCK on the next trading day is expected to be 6,053 with a mean absolute deviation of 44.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,655.

THE PHILIPPINE after-hype prediction price

    
  PHP 6052.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as index price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.

THE PHILIPPINE Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine THE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for THE using various technical indicators. When you analyze THE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
THE PHILIPPINE simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for THE PHILIPPINE STOCK are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as THE PHILIPPINE STOCK prices get older.

THE PHILIPPINE Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of THE PHILIPPINE STOCK on the next trading day is expected to be 6,053 with a mean absolute deviation of 44.25, mean absolute percentage error of 3,370, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,655.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THE Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE PHILIPPINE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

THE PHILIPPINE Index Forecast Pattern

THE PHILIPPINE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting THE PHILIPPINE's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. THE PHILIPPINE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,052 and 6,054, respectively. We have considered THE PHILIPPINE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6,053
6,053
Expected Value
6,054
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE PHILIPPINE index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE PHILIPPINE index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.3954
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5724
MADMean absolute deviation44.251
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors2655.0624
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting THE PHILIPPINE STOCK forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent THE PHILIPPINE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for THE PHILIPPINE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as THE PHILIPPINE STOCK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for THE PHILIPPINE

For every potential investor in THE, whether a beginner or expert, THE PHILIPPINE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. THE Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in THE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying THE PHILIPPINE's price trends.

THE PHILIPPINE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with THE PHILIPPINE index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of THE PHILIPPINE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing THE PHILIPPINE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

THE PHILIPPINE STOCK Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of THE PHILIPPINE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of THE PHILIPPINE's current price.

THE PHILIPPINE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how THE PHILIPPINE index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading THE PHILIPPINE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying THE PHILIPPINE index market strength indicators, traders can identify THE PHILIPPINE STOCK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

THE PHILIPPINE Risk Indicators

The analysis of THE PHILIPPINE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THE PHILIPPINE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.