Porvair Plc Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PRV Stock | 720.00 -10.00 -1.37% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Porvair plc, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Porvair plc on the next trading day is expected to be 714.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 740.38.When Porvair plc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Porvair plc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Porvair Plc observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Porvair Plc's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Porvair plc on the next trading day is expected to be 714.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 261.72 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 740.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Porvair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Porvair Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Porvair plc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Porvair Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Porvair Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.5487 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 740.3755 |
Other Forecasting Options for Porvair Plc
The price movement of Porvair is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Porvair Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Porvair Plc Related Equities
The following equities are related to Porvair Plc within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Porvair Plc against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Porvair Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Porvair Plc stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Porvair plc.
| Accumulation Distribution | 571.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.40 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 732.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 728.43 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0015 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -17.65 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -10.00 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.28 |
Porvair Plc Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Porvair Plc is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Porvair Plc's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Porvair Plc
Coverage intensity for Porvair plc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Porvair Plc Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Porvair plc is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.9 M |
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Other Information on Investing in Porvair Stock
Financial ratios for Porvair Plc provide valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Porvair across valuation measures.