Primoris Services Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PRIM Stock | USD 138.82 -4.26 -2.98% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Primoris Services is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Primoris Services on the next trading day is expected to be 138.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.15.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Primoris Services forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Primoris Services observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Primoris Services presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Primoris Services on the next trading day is expected to be 138.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 19.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.15 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Primoris Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Primoris Services' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Primoris Services | Primoris Services Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Primoris Services' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 135.87 and upside near 141.77.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Primoris Services stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Primoris Services stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2176 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1585 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3358 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 200.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Primoris Services
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Primoris Services' price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Primoris. Price charts for Primoris Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Primoris Services Related Equities
The following equities are related to Primoris Services within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Primoris Services against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Primoris Services Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Primoris Services give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Primoris Services is likely to be most rewarding.
Primoris Services Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Primoris Services' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Primoris Services'.
| Mean Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Primoris Services
A coverage review of Primoris Services shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Primoris Services Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Primoris Services matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 541.3 M |