T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PRIDX Fund | USD 72.54 -0.21 -0.29% |
T Rowe Price's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for T ROWE. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for T ROWE.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 72.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.81.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting T Rowe Price forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent T ROWE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for T Rowe Price are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 72.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.62 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.81 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRIDX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for T Rowe Price uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 71.53 on the downside to about 73.55 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.625 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0441 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
Bollinger Bands applied to PRIDX Mutual Fund price data measure how far PRIDX has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to T ROWE's price data. On-balance volume for PRIDX Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in PRIDX. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for T ROWE's.T ROWE Related Equities
T ROWE's market space within the Foreign Small/Mid Growth space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across T ROWE's peer group. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
For investors tracking T Rowe Price, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around T Rowe Price positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in T ROWE. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 72.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.10 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.21 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.61 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Analyzing T ROWE's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for pridx mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in T ROWE's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing T ROWE's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in T ROWE's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7408 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9862 | |||
| Variance | 0.9726 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
Story coverage around T Rowe Price often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.