PROG Holdings Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PRG Stock | USD 32.72 -0.54 -1.62% |
Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
This view relates PROG Holdings' headline activity to recent price response context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PROG Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 32.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.90.PROG Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 32.72 |
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for PROG Holdings using Historical Fundamental Analysis of PROG Holdings. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.PROG Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PROG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PROG using various technical indicators. When you analyze PROG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PROG Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PROG Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 32.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.95 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.90 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PROG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PROG Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PROG Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PROG Holdings | PROG Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PROG Holdings Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for PROG Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PROG Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PROG Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0787 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6594 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.9019 |
Experienced PROG Holdings' investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
PROG Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability distribution for PROG Holdings is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate PROG Holdings' historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of PROG Holdings outcomes than simple linear.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PROG Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The boundaries derived from PROG Holdings' historical news analysis represent the range within which PROG Holdings's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. PROG Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.05 and 35.39, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for PROG Holdings.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to PROG Holdings assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
PROG Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PROG Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PROG Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PROG Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.67 | 0.99 | 0.06 | 15 Events | 5 Events | In 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
32.72 | 32.72 | 0.00 |
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PROG Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 10th of March PROG Holdings is traded for 32.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.99, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. PROG is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 24.25%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on PROG Holdings is about 383.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.66. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PROG Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2026. The firm completed a 1179:1000 stock split on 1st of December 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 15 days. Cross-verify projections for PROG Holdings using Historical Fundamental Analysis of PROG Holdings. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.PROG Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Understanding PROG Holdings' position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for PROG Holdings. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to PROG Holdings' industry.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | 2.21 | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0.22 | 5.42 | -3.74 | 11.54 | |
| ALGT | Allegiant Travel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.16 | 0.02 | 4.52 | -5.08 | 24.10 | |
| GSL | Global Ship Lease | 0.94 | 10 per month | 1.56 | 0.1 | 2.60 | -2.42 | 7.31 | |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings | -0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 7.63 | -5.14 | 23.15 | |
| SLDP | Solid Power | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 5.89 | -7.46 | 19.34 | |
| ECO | Okeanis Eco Tankers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.21 | 5.29 | -3.96 | 13.01 | |
| CTOS | Custom Truck One | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 4.27 | -3.69 | 12.87 | |
| BBSI | Barrett Business Services | -11.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 3.49 | -4.13 | 18.90 | |
| GIC | Global Industrial Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.09 | 2.66 | -2.51 | 9.93 | |
| LMB | Limbach Holdings | 0.95 | 6 per month | 3.41 | 0.07 | 4.34 | -6.22 | 14.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for PROG Holdings
Understanding PROG Holdings' price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering PROG as a position. PROG Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.PROG Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PROG Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PROG Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PROG Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PROG Holdings Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in PROG Holdings, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading PROG Holdings shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
PROG Holdings Risk Indicators
Analyzing PROG Holdings' risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in PROG Holdings' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Variance | 7.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PROG Holdings
Coverage intensity for PROG Holdings matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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PROG Holdings Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to PROG Holdings matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 308.8 M |
More Resources for PROG Stock Analysis
Reviewing PROG Holdings commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for PROG Stock:Cross-verify projections for PROG Holdings using Historical Fundamental Analysis of PROG Holdings. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Our How to Buy PROG Stock guide explains the steps to invest in PROG Holdings stock.Analysis related to PROG Holdings should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Understanding PROG Holdings includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects PROG accounting equity. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. Market prices can move with sentiment and macro cycles, creating divergence from fundamentals. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
The concept of value for PROG Holdings differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. Reviewing financial results, valuation ratios, and competitive positioning helps frame the value discussion. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.