T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PRELX Fund | USD 4.94 -0.06 -1.20% |
This reference view applies Simple Moving Average to T Rowe Price's historical closing prices. T Rowe Price's Simple Moving Average reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. T Rowe Price's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for T Rowe Price.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 4.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.38.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of T Rowe Price price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of T ROWE. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All forecast values on this page for T Rowe Price are Simple Moving Average reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 4.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.001 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRELX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for T Rowe Price uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 4.41 and upside near 5.47.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.555 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.003 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0235 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0046 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.385 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
Volume-weighted price analysis for PRELX Mutual Fund gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in PRELX momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing T ROWE's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in PRELX Mutual Fund price action.T ROWE Related Equities
These stocks within the Emerging-Markets Local-Currency Bond space are often compared to T ROWE by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across T ROWE's peer group. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. Investors should weigh both financial metrics and softer factors when comparing these firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of T ROWE mutual fund allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade T Rowe Price. These metrics are particularly useful when T ROWE mutual fund shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing T Rowe Price strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.65 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
Understanding T ROWE's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in T ROWE's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing T ROWE's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for prelx mutual fund becomes clearer when T ROWE's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3905 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.532 | |||
| Variance | 0.283 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
Story coverage around T Rowe Price often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.