Perdoceo Education Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PRDO Stock | USD 30.47 0.80 2.56% |
Perdoceo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Perdoceo Education's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Perdoceo Education hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Perdoceo Education Corp from the perspective of Perdoceo Education response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Perdoceo Education Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.43. Perdoceo Education after-hype prediction price | USD 30.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perdoceo Education to cross-verify your projections. Perdoceo Education Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Perdoceo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Perdoceo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Perdoceo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Perdoceo Education Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Perdoceo Education Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 30.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perdoceo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perdoceo Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Perdoceo Education Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Perdoceo Education | Perdoceo Education Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Perdoceo Education Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Perdoceo Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perdoceo Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.63 and 32.09, respectively. We have considered Perdoceo Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perdoceo Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perdoceo Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3802 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.43 |
Predictive Modules for Perdoceo Education
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perdoceo Education Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perdoceo Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Perdoceo Education After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Perdoceo Education at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Perdoceo Education or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Perdoceo Education, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Perdoceo Education Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Perdoceo Education's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Perdoceo Education's historical news coverage. Perdoceo Education's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.81 and 32.25, respectively. We have considered Perdoceo Education's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Perdoceo Education is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Perdoceo Education Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Perdoceo Education Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Perdoceo Education is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Perdoceo Education backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Perdoceo Education, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.47 | 30.53 | 0.16 |
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Perdoceo Education Hype Timeline
Perdoceo Education Corp is at this time traded for 30.47. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Perdoceo is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Perdoceo Education is about 307.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.48. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 681.26 M. Net Income was 147.59 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 649.46 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perdoceo Education to cross-verify your projections.Perdoceo Education Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Perdoceo Education's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Perdoceo Education's future price movements. Getting to know how Perdoceo Education's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Perdoceo Education may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STRA | Strategic Education | 6.11 | 10 per month | 2.28 | (0.02) | 2.32 | (4.16) | 14.59 | |
| MH | McGraw Hill | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.08 | (4.78) | 17.34 | |
| CCU | Compania Cervecerias Unidas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 2.36 | (2.35) | 7.09 | |
| SMPL | Simply Good Foods | (0.65) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.63 | (3.68) | 12.40 | |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute | (0.39) | 7 per month | 4.84 | (0.02) | 4.73 | (4.12) | 25.18 | |
| COUR | Coursera | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.68 | (4.25) | 14.34 | |
| AFYA | Afya | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0 | 2.32 | (2.99) | 6.95 | |
| COCO | Vita Coco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.18 | 4.46 | (3.17) | 11.79 | |
| PXED | Phoenix Education Partners | 0.55 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.27 | (6.69) | 19.88 | |
| CHEF | The Chefs Warehouse | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.27 | 0.02 | 3.12 | (2.18) | 9.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Perdoceo Education
For every potential investor in Perdoceo, whether a beginner or expert, Perdoceo Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perdoceo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perdoceo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perdoceo Education's price trends.Perdoceo Education Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perdoceo Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perdoceo Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perdoceo Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Perdoceo Education Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Perdoceo Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Perdoceo Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Perdoceo Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Perdoceo Education Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13131.86 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.79) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.97 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.90) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.80) |
Perdoceo Education Risk Indicators
The analysis of Perdoceo Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perdoceo Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting perdoceo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 3.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Perdoceo Education
The number of cover stories for Perdoceo Education depends on current market conditions and Perdoceo Education's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Perdoceo Education is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Perdoceo Education's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Perdoceo Education Short Properties
Perdoceo Education's future price predictability will typically decrease when Perdoceo Education's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Perdoceo Education Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Perdoceo Education's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Perdoceo Education's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 568.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perdoceo Education to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Will Diversified Consumer Services sector continue expanding? Could Perdoceo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Perdoceo Education. Anticipated expansion of Perdoceo directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Perdoceo Education data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Perdoceo Education Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Perdoceo's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Perdoceo Education's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Perdoceo Education's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Perdoceo Education's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Perdoceo Education should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Perdoceo Education's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.