PPL Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PPL Stock | USD 37.06 0.16 0.43% |
PPL Corporation's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PPL Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 37.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.72.When PPL Corporation prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any PPL Corporation trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent PPL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for PPL Corporation are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PPL Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 37.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.72 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PPL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PPL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates PPL's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 36.03 on the downside to about 38.37 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PPL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PPL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1044 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3512 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for PPL
Bollinger Bands applied to PPL Stock price data measure how far PPL has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to PPL's price data.PPL Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as PPL within the Utilities space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether PPL earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PPL Market Strength Events
For investors tracking PPL Corporation, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around PPL Corporation positions.
PPL Risk Indicators
Analyzing PPL's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ppl stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PPL's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9245 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PPL
The amount of media and story coverage tied to PPL Corporation can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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PPL Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to PPL Corporation matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 745.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |