Insulet Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PODD Stock  USD 227.08  -0.02  -0.01%   
Insulet's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Insulet. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Insulet.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insulet on the next trading day is expected to be 227.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 232.04.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Insulet forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Insulet observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Insulet are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Insulet simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Insulet are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Insulet prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Insulet on the next trading day is expected to be 227.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.87 , mean absolute percentage error of 26.75 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 232.04 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Insulet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Insulet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Insulet uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 225.10 and upside near 229.06.
Market Value
227.08
225.10
Downside
227.08
Expected Value
229.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Insulet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Insulet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.559
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.029
MADMean absolute deviation3.8673
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors232.04
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Insulet forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Insulet observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Insulet

Bollinger Bands applied to Insulet Stock price data measure how far Insulet has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Insulet's price data. On-balance volume for Insulet Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Insulet. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Insulet's.

Insulet Related Equities

These stocks within the Health Care space are often compared to Insulet by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Checking Insulet against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. Use these checks as a starting point for deeper study of Insulet's strengths and weak spots.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Insulet Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Insulet, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Insulet. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Insulet. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Insulet.

Insulet Risk Indicators

Analyzing Insulet's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for insulet stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Insulet's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Insulet's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Insulet's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Insulet

Story coverage around Insulet often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Insulet Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Insulet is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments716.1 M

More Resources for Insulet Stock Analysis

A clear view of Insulet comes from reviewing its financial structure and trends. The information reflects Insulet's most recent reporting inputs.