PIMCO MODERATE Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PMOPX Fund  USD 9.32  -0.07  -0.75%   
This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for PIMCO Moderate Duration presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Moderate Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PIMCO Moderate Duration forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PIMCO MODERATE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for PIMCO Moderate Duration are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
PIMCO MODERATE simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for PIMCO Moderate Duration are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as PIMCO Moderate Duration prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Moderate Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO MODERATE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for PIMCO Moderate Duration focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
9.32
9.32
Expected Value
9.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO MODERATE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO MODERATE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.5363
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0013
MADMean absolute deviation0.015
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0016
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PIMCO Moderate Duration forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PIMCO MODERATE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO MODERATE

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether PIMCO is a viable investment for any investor. PIMCO Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

PIMCO MODERATE Related Equities

The following equities are related to PIMCO MODERATE within the Intermediate Core-Plus Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PIMCO MODERATE against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PIMCO MODERATE Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of PIMCO MODERATE mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading PIMCO Moderate Duration is most likely to be profitable.

PIMCO MODERATE Risk Indicators

The analysis of PIMCO MODERATE's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in PIMCO MODERATE's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PIMCO MODERATE

A coverage review of PIMCO Moderate Duration shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

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